The three parliamentary seats in the northeastern Jamaica parish of St Mary will be among the most keenly-contested of the 63 seats in the nation’s Parliament, in the upcoming general election.

The governing Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) currently holds two of the St Mary seats – St Mary South Eastern and St Mary Western, following its landslide win over the Opposition People’s National Party (PNP) in the 2020 General Election, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. After all ballots were counted following the September 3, 2020 election, the JLP had secured 49 seats with the PNP winning the remaining 14. The lone seat held by the PNP in the small northeastern Jamaica parish is its bastion of St Mary Central which it again expects to win, whenever the election is called.

The PNP is keenly aware that it must pick up 18 seats and hold the 14 it currently has, if it is to form the government when next Jamaicans go to the polls which will be no later than September. The party will be banking on St Mary to deliver some of those seats.
Despite being down to just one seat in St Mary, the parish has traditionally been good stomping ground for the PNP. In fact, outside of Westmoreland, St Mary parish has been one of the most faithful to the party over the decades. In the last 45 years, except for Westmoreland, St Mary is the most loyal of rural parishes to the PNP when it comes to electing Members of Parliament (MP) and the party will be banking on that history to once again put it in charge of the government.

A close look at the results of the last nine contested general elections dating back to 1980 shows that St Mary has almost always elected multiple PNP MPs after each election. In fact, the party has swept the polls in the parish on five of the nine occasions – in 1989, 1993, 1997 and 2002 and again in 2011. On each of those occasions the PNP won the election.

So good has St Mary been to the PNP that, during the blow-out election loss of 1980, the worst defeat inflicted on the PNP in its almost 87-year history, when the party won just nine of the 60 seats that were contested then, two were won in St Mary. In 1980, only one other rural parish delivered a seat for the PNP outside of the Corporate Area of Kingston and St Andrew. That was St Ann, where the PNP’s Seymour Mullings won in the party’s stronghold of St Ann South Eastern, a seat which the PNP has never lost.

Of the remaining six seats that the PNP won in 1980, two were in Kingston and four in St Andrew. Of note is that in 1980, both Kingston and St Mary had four constituencies each. In St Mary, the PNP’s Terry Gillette beat the JLP’s John Franklin in St Mary East Central and Horace Clarke prevailed over Brady Walter in St Mary West Central. The JLP’s Alva Ross beat the PNP’s Derrick Webb in St Mary South East and the party also won St Mary Western with Talbert Forrest turning back the challenge of Vincent Edwards.

The two seats the PNP picked up in St Mary in 1980 proved to be no fluke. As indicated earlier, over the course of four consecutive general elections between 1989 and 2002, the party swept all three St Mary seats on each occasion. During that stretch, the party chalked up four consecutive general election wins beginning with Michael Manley’s comeback victory in 1989, followed by P.J. Patterson in 1993, 1997 and 2002. The PNP would again sweep the parish in 2011 when the Portia Simpson Miller-led PNP won 42 seats to the 21 secured by the Andrew Holness-led JLP.

Prior to 1989 when Harry Douglas won his first of four consecutive elections in St Mary South East on a PNP ticket, the constituency was JLP territory with the Ross family winning the seat over the course of 40 years beginning with Andrew Ross in 1949. His son Alva succeeded him in 1967 and kept on winning until he ran into Douglas. In the 2007 general election when Bruce Golding led the JLP to victory, the JLP turned the tables, winning in both St Mary Western and St Mary South Eastern to secure a narrow three-seat majority in the Parliament. Of note is that while attempting to win the seat for a fifth time in 2007, Douglas lost St Mary South Eastern to the JLP’s Tarn Peralto by a mere 34 votes. That victory was short-lived as, when the PNP returned to power in 2011, the seat was once more in its win column.

When the PNP’s Dr Winston Green who had won the seat in both 2011 and 2016 died suddenly in August 2017, his death paved the way for a by-election. Prime Minister Andrew Holness, with a one-seat majority in the House of Representatives, called a by-election barely two months later. The JLP candidate, Dr Norman Dunn who was defeated by Dr Green in the general election, turned the tables on the PNP’s Dr Shane Alexis this time around. Dunn is the incumbent in the seat as he again defeated Alexis when they renewed rivalry in the 2020 polls.

While Dunn has now established a record and is also a junior minister in the Holness cabinet, the PNP is confident that its candidate for the upcoming election, hometown boy, Christopher Brown, will wrest the seat from the JLP when next Jamaicans go to the polls. In fact, the outgoing MP for St Mary Central, Dr Morais Guy, who is bowing out of representational politics after four consecutive wins, is predicting a PNP clean sweep in the parish. If that were to happen, it would make it six PNP clean sweeps in 10 contested elections.

“From the border at White River to Prospect, to the Caribbean Sea, to the border with north-east St Catherine, it will be orange,” Guy said at a June 6 official campaign launch to present Omar Newell, the man who replaces him on the PNP ticket. “We are ready. And that is why I say to all of those who want to come and test Central St Mary, ‘Don’t test because you’re going to backslide like others before,” added Guy as he reflected on JLP candidates he has beaten in past elections.

For the upcoming election, St Mary Western will be the most keenly-watched of the three constituencies. Following the Terry Gillette dominance in recent times, the seat has swung somewhat between the two parties. It has always swung as, since 1967, the seat has been won on every occasion by the party that has gone on to win the election.

The PNP has been extremely confident and bullish about its chances in St Mary Western where its standard bearer is Omar Woodbine. He will be taking on the incumbent, JLP Chairman Robert Montague. As far back as January this year, Port Maria Mayor and Chairman of the St Mary Municipal Corporation, Fitzroy Wilson, declared that the PNP was poised to win Western St Mary.

Commenting on the PNP’s win in the parish in the 2024 Local Government Elections, Wilson said, “We are gonna do it bigger and better! Let me say this, the only person or thing that can stop the Woodbine train is we (the PNP) ourselves”.

“Let me tell yuh, Labourites can’t win Western St Mary. We can only lose it; we can only throw it away!” Wilson declared. He was speaking at a party meeting where Woodbine was officially presented as the party’s candidate by PNP President and Opposition Leader Mark Golding. Of significance is the fact that the PNP won three of the five parochial divisions in Western St Mary – Gayle, Oracabessa and Boscobel, while the JLP held the Carron Hall and Retreat divisions. Montague is very strong in those two divisions, especially Carron Hall.

Since St Mary Western is usually one of the earlier seats called on election night, whichever party is declared the winner will likely go on to win the election. Having wrested the seat from the PNP in 2007, Mongtague suffered a shock defeat in 2011. Montague bounced back to winning ways in 2016 and held the seat in 2020 blowout. However, word on the ground is that he is under tremendous pressure to hold the seat this time around. If he loses, the JLP may come up short in its bid for an unprecedented third term in office.

See below General Election results in St Mary 1980-2020:
1980 – St Mary South Eastern – Alva Ross (JLP) beats Derrick Webb (PNP)

         St Mary East Central    -Terry Gillette (PNP) beats John Franklin (JLP)

         St Mary West Central – Horace Clarke (PNP) beats Bradley Walter (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Talbert Forrest (JLP) beats Vincent Edwards (PNP)

1989 – St Mary South Eastern – Harry Douglas (PNP) beats Alva Ross (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Terry Gillette (PNP) beats Hyacinth Knight (JLP

         St Mary Central – Horace Clarke (PNP) beats Neville Murray (JLP)

1993 – St Mary South Eastern – Harry Douglas (PNP) beats Alva Ross (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Terry Gillette (PNP) beats Hyacinth Knight (JLP)

         St Mary Central – Horace Clarke (PNP) beats Garth Martin (JLP)

1997 – St Mary South Eastern – Harry Douglas (PNP) beats Don Creary (JLP)

         St Mary Central – Horace Clarke (PNP) beats Sutcliffe Haughton-James (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Terry Gillette (PNP) beat Hyacinth Knight (JLP)

2002 – St Mary South Eastern – Harry Douglas (PNP) beats Tarn Peralto (JLP)

         St Mary Central – Dr Morais Guy (PNP) beats Sutcliffe Haughton-James (JLP)

         St Mary Western Neil McGill (PNP) beats Hyacinth Knight (JLP)

2007 – St Mary South Eastern – Tarn Peralto (JLP) beats Harry Douglas (PNP)

         St Mary Central – Dr Morais Guy (PNP) beats Lennon Richards (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Robert Montague (JLP) beats Delano Franklyn (PNP)

2011 – St Mary South Eastern – Dr Winston Green (PNP) beats Richard Creary (JLP)

         St Mary Central – Dr Morais Guy (PNP) beats Lennon Richards (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Jolyan Silvera (PNP) beats Robert Montague (JLP)  

2016 – St Mary South Eastern – Dr Winston Green (PNP) beats Dr Norman Dunn (JLP)

         St Mary Central – Dr Morais Guy (PNP) beats Jason James (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Robert Montague (JLP) beats Jolyan Silvera (PNP)

2020 – St Mary South Eastern – Dr Norman Dunn (JLP) beats Dr Shane Alexis (PNP)

         St Mary Central – Dr Morais Guy (PNP) beats Richard Lennon (JLP)

         St Mary Western – Robert Montague (JLP) beats Jason Stanford (PNP)